Morning coffee & market talk

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Most mornings, pouring a hot cup of coffee feels like the only thing that's in your control. 

You pour it, sip it (seriously, sometimes it's a singular sip. I swear kids have a sixth sense), and for a microsecond, you feel like there's some predictability in your life. 

But as every parent and capital markets professional knows, control is nothing but an illusion. 

Your inbox overflows. The kids nag about morning snacks after refusing breakfast. And now, even the Federal Reserve continues to fly blind because of the partial government shutdown.

Critical data releases, including the September jobs report and upcoming inflation data, are now delayed, but despite this uncertainty, bond markets are fully expecting a 0.25% Fed rate cut on October 29. 

Think about that for a second.

Investors are making billion-dollar bets without seeing the numbers.

The Fed could easily cut rates without fresh employment data. 

Everyone's navigating in the dark and yet the market’s not panicking because professionals aren't trying to control the outcome, they're getting ready for multiple scenarios.

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I've been thinking a lot lately about how easy it is to mistake control for readiness.

A control mindset tricks you into thinking that if you plan enough, nothing will go wrong.

While a readiness mindset reminds you that things will go wrong and you have to roll with the punches. 

In parenting, it’s the shift from preventing chaos to managing it.

In markets, it’s the shift from predicting outcomes to preparing for them.

So as you sip that next cup (microwaved or not), maybe the goal isn’t to have a smoother morning or a calmer market, maybe it’s to learn how to stay steady when things go sideways. 

Here’s how to practice this: If you're reviewing portfolios this week, ask yourself, “Am I positioning for the outcome I want, or the range of outcomes that could happen?”

If your strategy only works in one scenario, you're not ready. You're hoping!

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